Communist Nation

It has been very slow posting as of late, and I would like to apologize for that.

An ROK fishing boat has been released in a “goodwill measure” from the DPRK. The four man crew has been released along with the boat, and according to the article:

The North’s recent barrage of conciliatory gestures has been surprising, even to South Korean officials familiar with the fickle pattern in North Korea’s diplomacy. Analysts say the overtures indicate that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, has regained confidence about his health and grip on power. He was reported to have had a stroke last August.

This part is questionable, because the reasoning behind this is anybody’s guess. I believe Kim Jong Il has confidence he has absolute power over his domain, but the past shakeups in the cabinet posts indicate something is going on. I have not heard much about any possible succession yet, and the fever of these speculative stories have died down, and still no official word has come from the North. With that, we wait, and in the meantime, I also believe the release of these people are for propaganda purposes (He needs the smiling, caring leader legacy like his old man) and a way to get concessions. It has been a familiar pattern for years, so this is really no surprise. In all, very few things are of goodwill from the Kim Jong Il regime.

Yet at the same time with all of these “goodwill gestures”, the UAE seized a ship with arms to Iran. Yep, giving arms to the enemy is a very nice gesture indeed, and it means some ill-gained hard currency for Kim Jong Il. So while he is trying to reach his hand over the table in a friendly manner, he is still doing what he does best: illicit trade. What a terrific fellow:

According to the Security Council diplomat, the weapons were carried on an Australian vessel, the ANL-Australia, which was flying under a Bahamian flag. According to an Aug. 14 letter sent to the U.N. sanctions committee, the exporting company was an Italian shipper, Otim, which exported the items from its Shanghai office.

“The cargo manifest said the shipment contained oil-boring machines, but then you opened it up and there were these items,” the diplomat said. ANL and Otim officials couldn’t immediately be reached to comment.

The sanctions committee replied to the letter earlier this week, informing the U.A.E. it had an obligation to “seize and dispose” of the weapons. The weapons have been offloaded from the ship, and the ship has been released, according to people familiar with the action.

Bewildered, questions are being asked, Kim is being such a nice guy, why this?

The seizure could also raise fresh questions about North Korea’s intentions. After taking an aggressive stance against the West earlier this year, Pyongyang appears to have softened its rhetoric, releasing two captive American journalists and sending a delegation to meet with South Korea’s president.

There is nothing “fresh” about this in my opinion. I sincerely believe Kim Jong Il is doing everything according to his plan. On the other hand, it appears Washington and others may not be buying this approach. Problem is, few choices are to be had in the North Korean problem, and to be sure, nobody is going to use the ideas presented by One Free Korea to get some real teeth in the sanctions process. The other article continues:

United States and South Korean officials fear the North may be using its current overtures to undermine international consensus for the need to enforce sanctions. They say they are determined to break the old pattern of rewarding the North’s on-again, off-again nuclear strategy with aid and diplomatic incentives.

South Korea says it will not repeat the old format of dialogue with the North that had provided aid but failed to dismantle the North’s nuclear program. On Thursday, the State Department said it had no immediate plan to send an envoy to North Korea. Such a trip would allow North Korea to open bilateral discussions it has long sought while continuing to shun six-nation talks, a forum Washington prefers.

This is news of the century. Not too long ago, I thought this was supposed to end it all. Alas, I guess it did not work, did it? Kim still has his nukes, and some money to boot. All the while his population suffers. Oh wait, the people! I think somebody forgot about them. the speculation continues:

Analysts say they expect the North to continue its recent tack. Mr. Kim has promised his people he will rebuild the economy by 2012. That achievement would make the dynastic transfer of power to his son more popular domestically, but require better ties with the outside world.

“North Korea doesn’t have much time,” said Kim Yong-hyun, the analyst at Dongguk University.

Rebuilding the economy by 2012 will be a tremendous undertaking, and under the current system, I cannot see it working at all. If one has seen the condition of North Korea, it is going to take untold billions of dollars and many years to fix. Unless fundamental reforms take place such as getting back to the international community, start trade, greatly reduce its emphasis on the military, grant more freedoms for commerce, import more food, and the list goes on and on, it is not going to happen. Such reforms will mean the degradation of power.

I do agree North Korea does not have much time, but like anything else there, the amount of time is left is uncertain. That’s what should concern all.

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Tags: News, North Korea